Barton M. Biggs, managing partner at Traxis Partners, a hedge fund, places himself in the optimists' camp, too. Yet he advises well-to-do investors to arm themselves - with shotguns, if need be - against the possibility of a deepening downturn and accompanying "social unrest."<ul><li><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/08/your-money/08invest.html?_r=3">http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/08/your-money/08invest.html?_r=3</a</li></ul>

"Mr. Biggs said he thinks it's "50-50" as to whether the economy begins to recover over the next year or "whether we are going into a depression and a deflation," which could conceivably be as painful as the 1930s.

"If we're going into the 1930s," he said, "it'll be survivalism, and we'll have very substantial social unrest."

Mr. Wien considers that prospect extremely unlikely, saying he is convinced that the Obama administration's economic and financial rescue plans "will do the job," setting off a stock market rally later in the year. But he also predicted enough disturbance in currency markets for gold to rise to $1,200 an ounce from its current $940 range."

Define civil unrest.

I don't think we'll have any kind of riots - probably just higher unemployment leading to a higher crime rate.

The question is when and what will cause it to move beyond that?

the crime rate. At some point in the future, when the economy starts to recover, the unemployment rate will go down and so will the crime rate. At least that's how I hope it will play out. I'm not ruling out a much quicker economic downturn followed by riots, but I don't think that will happen. I'm still prepared though.

UE will rise along with the crime rate but if it's unchecked at some point it will reach a critical mass waiting for a trigger. There will be a defining moment that turns everything upside down. What's even more terrifying to me than the UE rate is the homeless via foreclosure rate. When you have tent cities popping around all the major metropolitan areas things are ripe to get ugly fast.<ul><li><a href="http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/11/tent-city-report/?hp">http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/11/tent-city-report/?hp</a</li></ul>

is unbecoming an adult male with a spine.

<center><img src="http://www.monthlyreview.org/mrzine/frankenstein_villagers488.jpg"></center><p>Never know when the villagers are going to storm the castle with pitchforks and torches.